Tài chính kết quả cho the second quarter of 2023, as disclosure by companies in the optical industry, reveal that the "Bullwhip effect" continued to trouble optical component suppliers during this period. High levels of inventory among equipment manufacturers and end customers have restrained sales growth at the component level. Tuy nhiên, sales data for optical transceivers collected by LightCounting indicate the first signs of recovery in demand for Ethernet transceivers and High-Speed Active Optical Cables (AOC).
The chart below illustrates the state of the entire industry supply chain. Sales of telecom optical components (DWDM, FTTx, and WFH) reductiond by 33% year-on-year and 14% compared to the previous quarter. Sales of datacom optical components (Ethernet, fiber channel, and AOC) also saw a a 15% year-on-year decline, but Ethernet transceiver sales tăng by 5% compared to the previous quarter, with expectations of more đáng kể tăng trưởng trong thứ hai nửa của 2023. AOC doanh số có kinh nghiệm a sắc nét giảm in đầu tiên quý nhưng nhanh chóng phục hồi in thứ hai quý of 2023. The majority of this growth can be attributed to the demand for quang connections in artificial intelligence clusters. This analysis excludes direct sales of optical components by NVIDIA, which could easy add another 10% to Ethernet transceiver sales and a 30% boost to AOC sales.
Tương tự với the previous two quarters, Internet Content Providers (ICPs) and Communication Service Providers (CSPs) have reported a slowdown in growth in key business areas, with ongoing lays. Most project a slowdown in expenditure growth for 2023. Specificly concerning is the continued trend of slowing cloud service sales growth among four major data center operators in the second quarter of 2023. Điều này xu hướng tồn tại bất chấp the rõ ràng thống trị of the "nhân tạo thông minh cánh tay chủng tộc."
In contrast to the sharp decline in optical component sales, sales of network equipment in the second quarter of 2023 remained stable, with a slight decline of 0.4-0.5%. The reason for this unnormal phenomenon is the backlog of equipment orders from 2021-2022 when many components were in short supply. Hiện tại%, equipment suppliers are still working to fulfill orders from over A năm trước.
In terms of outlook for the third quarter of 2023, Amazon, Meta, Calix, and Ciena all anticipate double-digit sales growth compared to the third quarter of 2022. Coherent and Lumentum, however, expect double-digit declines due to ongoing inventory issues with their primary customers, primarily telecom equipment suppliers. Recovery in telecom component demand is unlikely to occur in 2023.